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	~~Potential buyers of Lancel see reviving the loss-making leather goods maker as~~ a ~~high-risk gamble that could take at least six or eight years~~ to ~~pay off~~, ~~sources close to the matter say.~~<br>~~<br>Facing a struggle to offload the business~~, ~~Swiss parent Richemont~~ (~~CFR.VX~~) ~~would be ready~~ to ~~pay for two years of losses - up to an estimated 20 million euros~~ (~~$28 million~~) - ~~to entice bidders, the sources say.~~<br>~~<br>So far private equity firms Change Capital~~ and ~~Lion Capital have expressed interest while Asian group Swire is looking to team up with~~ a ~~private equity firm to make a bid, according to the sources.<br>Another potential buyer, who has not made up his mind yet,~~ is ~~Jacques Veyrat, the former CEO of private French trading group Louis Dreyfus who~~ used to ~~run its Neuf Cegetel telecoms unit.<br><br>Veyrat left Louis Dreyfus in 2011 with a golden parachute~~ of ~~270 million euros~~, ~~according to the French press. He has since~~ set ~~up the Impala group,~~ which ~~invests in companies in distress~~.~~<br>Veyrat~~, ~~Swire, Lion Capital and Change Capital [http://Www.guardian.co.uk/search?q=declined declined] to comment~~, as ~~did Lancel and Richemont.<br>People close to~~ the ~~talks say the bidding process for Lancel,~~ which ~~had already been going on for months, could last several more weeks.<br><br>Lancel is run part-time by Fabrizio Cardinali, CEO~~ of ~~Dunhill, another Richemont brand~~.~~<br>Lancel has hired~~ a ~~new designer~~, ~~Nicole Stulman, who was previously at Reed Krakoff, Hermes (HRMS~~.~~PA) and Celine and does not have~~ a ~~head of merchandising to work with since that person~~ has ~~left for Dunhill, sources close to the sale process said.<br><br>Other key people at the company are either on sick leave or have not~~ been ~~replaced~~, the ~~sources said.<br>Lancel's difficulties come as the luxury sector as a whole remains resilient despite a slowdown in China, continuing~~ to ~~grow, although at~~ a ~~slower pace than in previous years~~.<br>~~PRIVATE EQUITY~~<br>~~The relationship between private equity and fashion brands can be difficult because the typical three- to five-year investment horizon may be too short to turn a label around.~~<br><br>~~Private equity deals are usually financed by debt~~, ~~which puts pressure on the [http://Www~~.~~Britannica~~.~~com/search?query=fashion+brand fashion brand] when it needs to invest in marketing and new shops~~.<br>~~Lanvin, acquired by Taiwanese media magnate Shaw-Lan Wang from L~~'~~Oreal in 2001, took more than seven years to become profitable. TPG struggled for nine years to restructure~~ the ~~leather goods brand Bally before selling it in 2008~~.<br><br>There have been few successful revamps of struggling brands that are still going concerns. Carven, Balenciaga and Lanvin lay dormant for decades before they were acquired, allowing their new owners to make a ~~fresh start~~.~~<br>Lancel was founded by accessories designer Ang�le Lancel in 1876~~, ~~remaining in~~ the ~~hands of her descendants until it was acquired in the late 1970s by the Zorbibe brothers, who~~ with ~~then chief executive Sidney Toledano, now Dior CEO, launched~~ the ~~hit bucket-shaped Elsa bag and made Lancel a profitable business.~~<br>~~<br><br>Industry executives say Lancel was making margins higher than Louis Vuitton - today's market leader - when Richemont bought it in 1997~~.<br>~~"All my girlfriends in the 1990s dreamt of having a Lancel bag~~,~~" said Serge Carreira~~, ~~who lectures on luxury at~~ the ~~Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris, known~~ as ~~"Sciences Po".~~<br><~~br>Lancel had not expanded internationally or creatively as its rivals did, he said~~.<br>~~Lancel makes more than 80 percent~~ of ~~its sales in France and in~~ the ~~year to end June, it had an operating loss~~ of ~~10 million euros on revenues of 135 million euros, sources close to~~ the ~~matter said~~.~~<br>Richemont, the world's second biggest luxury group~~, ~~does not publish separate sales and profit figures~~ for ~~its brands, which include Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels.~~<br><br>~~Longchamp~~, ~~founded in 1948 and still owned by~~ the ~~founding Cassegrain family, has annual sales of 500 million euros.~~<br>~~"ELECTRIC SHOCK"~~<br>~~"What Lancel needs in an electric shock in terms of design, marketing, store concept and image," says Boston Consulting Group senior partner Jean-Marc Bellaiche.<br>Analysts say Lancel needs to enter~~ the ~~accessible segment~~ of the ~~luxury market, alongside Coach (COH.N), Michael Kors (KORS.N) and Longchamp with handbags costing 200-800 euros.~~<br><br>~~Lancel lost credibility at the high end of the luxury market by [http://www~~.~~pcs-systems.co.uk/Images/celinebag.aspx http://www.pcs-systems.co.uk/Images/celinebag.aspx] offering excessive discounts~~ and ~~putting out staid~~, ~~old-fashioned designs, such~~ as ~~the Brigitte Bardot bag in 2010 -~~ a ~~1970s style version~~ of ~~the bucket bag - and the document holder Isabelle Adjani bag in 2008~~.<br><br>~~"Lancel~~'~~s products~~, ~~while perfectly fine~~, ~~look~~ a ~~bit dated and are not a must-buy,~~" ~~said Hugh Devlin, a consultant at legal firm Withers LLP, who specializes in luxury and fashion brands.~~<br><br>~~"With~~ the ~~right creative team~~ and ~~strategy~~, ~~that could definitely change but whoever buys it will need to~~ be ~~prepared to take a risk~~."<br>~~Lancel clearly thinks it can make it as a luxury brand. A few months ago~~, ~~it introduced an ostrich leather "~~L~~" bag costing 4,500 euros, emulating Gucci (PRTP~~.~~PA)~~ and ~~Louis Vuitton's~~ (~~LVMH.PA~~) ~~recent efforts to move upmarket.<br><br>Carreira disagrees.~~ "~~You do not become~~ a ~~luxury brand because you sell a bag for 4,000 euros~~," ~~he said.<br>To rebuild its name in the crowded accessories market~~, ~~experts say Lancel should do some ready-to~~-~~wear, as Longchamp did, to stimulate traffic in shops and rejuvenate itself.~~<br>~~Another potential investor who looked at Lancel said it had suffered from under-investment and excessive management turnover.<br><br>Having had about~~ a ~~dozen chief executives since 1997,~~ the ~~company will now need to be given time by its new owners to implement long~~-~~term strategy, industry observers said~~.~~<br>~~(~~Editing by Giles Elgood~~)		In [[econometrics]], '''ridit scoring''' is a statistical method used to analyze ordered qualitative measurements.
			The tools of ridit analysis were developed and first applied by Bross,<ref>Bross, Irwin D.J. (1958) "How to Use Ridit Analysis," ''Biometrics'', 14 (1):18-38 {{jstor\|2527727}}
			</ref> who coined the term "ridit" by analogy with other statistical transformations such as [[probit]] and [[logit]].

			==Calculation of ridit scores==

			===Choosing a reference data set===
			Since ridit scoring is used to compare two or more sets of ordered qualitative data, one set is designated as a reference against which other sets can be compared. In econometric studies, for example, the ridit scores measuring taste survey answers of a competing or historically important product are often used as the reference data set against which taste surveys of new products are compared. Absent a convenient reference data set, an accumulation of pooled data from several sets or even an artificial or hypothetical set can be used.

			===Determining the probability function===
			After a reference data set has been chosen, the reference data set must be converted to a probability function. To do this, let ''x<sub>1</sub>'', ''x<sub>2</sub>'',..., ''x<sub>n</sub>'' denote the ordered categories of the preference scale. For each ''j'', ''x<sub>j</sub>'' represents a choice or judgment. Then, let the probability function ''p'' be defined with respect to the reference data set as

			:<math>p_j=Prob({x_j}).</math>

			===Determining ridits===
			The ridit scores, or simply ridits, of the reference data set are then easily calculated as

			:<math>w_j=0.5p_j+\sum_{k<j}{p_k}.</math>

			Each of the categories of the reference data set are then associated with a ridit score.
			More formally, for each <math>1\le j\le n</math>, the value ''w<sub>j</sub>'' is the ridit score of the choice ''x<sub>j</sub>''.

			==Interpretation and examples==
			Intuitively, ridit scoring can be understood as a modified notion of percentile. For any j, if ''x<sub>j</sub>'' has a low (close to 0) ridit score, one can conclude that
			:<math>\sum_{k<j}{Prob(x_k)}</math>
			is very small, which is to say that very few respondents have chosen a category "lower" than ''x<sub>j</sub>''.

			==Applications==
			Ridit scoring has found use primarily in the [[health science]]s (including nursing and [[epidemiology]]) and econometric preference studies.{{Citation needed\|date=June 2011}}

			==A mathematical approach==
			Besides having intuitive appeal, the derivation for ridit scoring can be arrived at with mathematically rigorous methods as well. Brockett and Levine<ref>Brockett, Patrick L. and Levine, Arnold (1977) "On a Characterization of Ridits," ''The Annals of Statistics'', 5 (6):1245-1248 {{jstor\|2958658}}
			</ref> presented a derivation of the above ridit score equations based on several intuitively uncontroversial mathematical postulates.

			==See also==

			* [[Logit]]
			* [[Probit]]
			* [[Percentile]]

			==Notes==
			R statistical computing package for Ridit Analysis: http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=Ridit
			{{reflist}}

			==Further reading==

			{{cite doi\|10.1016/S1090-3801(98)90018-0}}

			[[Category:Econometrics]]
			[[Category:Categorical data]]

en>Ozhu: Undid revision 504455562 by Ozhu (talk); I'm moving the Bsr redirect to the BSR page

2012-07-27T16:51:06Z

Undid revision 504455562 by Ozhu (talk); I'm moving the Bsr redirect to the BSR page

New page

Potential buyers of Lancel see reviving the loss-making leather goods maker as a high-risk gamble that could take at least six or eight years to pay off, sources close to the matter say. Facing a struggle to offload the business, Swiss parent Richemont (CFR.VX) would be ready to pay for two years of losses - up to an estimated 20 million euros ($28 million) - to entice bidders, the sources say. So far private equity firms Change Capital and Lion Capital have expressed interest while Asian group Swire is looking to team up with a private equity firm to make a bid, according to the sources. Another potential buyer, who has not made up his mind yet, is Jacques Veyrat, the former CEO of private French trading group Louis Dreyfus who used to run its Neuf Cegetel telecoms unit. Veyrat left Louis Dreyfus in 2011 with a golden parachute of 270 million euros, according to the French press. He has since set up the Impala group, which invests in companies in distress. Veyrat, Swire, Lion Capital and Change Capital [http://Www.guardian.co.uk/search?q=declined declined] to comment, as did Lancel and Richemont. People close to the talks say the bidding process for Lancel, which had already been going on for months, could last several more weeks. Lancel is run part-time by Fabrizio Cardinali, CEO of Dunhill, another Richemont brand. Lancel has hired a new designer, Nicole Stulman, who was previously at Reed Krakoff, Hermes (HRMS.PA) and Celine and does not have a head of merchandising to work with since that person has left for Dunhill, sources close to the sale process said. Other key people at the company are either on sick leave or have not been replaced, the sources said. Lancel's difficulties come as the luxury sector as a whole remains resilient despite a slowdown in China, continuing to grow, although at a slower pace than in previous years. PRIVATE EQUITY The relationship between private equity and fashion brands can be difficult because the typical three- to five-year investment horizon may be too short to turn a label around. Private equity deals are usually financed by debt, which puts pressure on the [http://Www.Britannica.com/search?query=fashion+brand fashion brand] when it needs to invest in marketing and new shops. Lanvin, acquired by Taiwanese media magnate Shaw-Lan Wang from L'Oreal in 2001, took more than seven years to become profitable. TPG struggled for nine years to restructure the leather goods brand Bally before selling it in 2008. There have been few successful revamps of struggling brands that are still going concerns. Carven, Balenciaga and Lanvin lay dormant for decades before they were acquired, allowing their new owners to make a fresh start. Lancel was founded by accessories designer Ang�le Lancel in 1876, remaining in the hands of her descendants until it was acquired in the late 1970s by the Zorbibe brothers, who with then chief executive Sidney Toledano, now Dior CEO, launched the hit bucket-shaped Elsa bag and made Lancel a profitable business. Industry executives say Lancel was making margins higher than Louis Vuitton - today's market leader - when Richemont bought it in 1997. "All my girlfriends in the 1990s dreamt of having a Lancel bag," said Serge Carreira, who lectures on luxury at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris, known as "Sciences Po". Lancel had not expanded internationally or creatively as its rivals did, he said. Lancel makes more than 80 percent of its sales in France and in the year to end June, it had an operating loss of 10 million euros on revenues of 135 million euros, sources close to the matter said. Richemont, the world's second biggest luxury group, does not publish separate sales and profit figures for its brands, which include Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels. Longchamp, founded in 1948 and still owned by the founding Cassegrain family, has annual sales of 500 million euros. "ELECTRIC SHOCK" "What Lancel needs in an electric shock in terms of design, marketing, store concept and image," says Boston Consulting Group senior partner Jean-Marc Bellaiche. Analysts say Lancel needs to enter the accessible segment of the luxury market, alongside Coach (COH.N), Michael Kors (KORS.N) and Longchamp with handbags costing 200-800 euros. Lancel lost credibility at the high end of the luxury market by [http://www.pcs-systems.co.uk/Images/celinebag.aspx http://www.pcs-systems.co.uk/Images/celinebag.aspx] offering excessive discounts and putting out staid, old-fashioned designs, such as the Brigitte Bardot bag in 2010 - a 1970s style version of the bucket bag - and the document holder Isabelle Adjani bag in 2008. "Lancel's products, while perfectly fine, look a bit dated and are not a must-buy," said Hugh Devlin, a consultant at legal firm Withers LLP, who specializes in luxury and fashion brands. "With the right creative team and strategy, that could definitely change but whoever buys it will need to be prepared to take a risk." Lancel clearly thinks it can make it as a luxury brand. A few months ago, it introduced an ostrich leather "L" bag costing 4,500 euros, emulating Gucci (PRTP.PA) and Louis Vuitton's (LVMH.PA) recent efforts to move upmarket. Carreira disagrees. "You do not become a luxury brand because you sell a bag for 4,000 euros," he said. To rebuild its name in the crowded accessories market, experts say Lancel should do some ready-to-wear, as Longchamp did, to stimulate traffic in shops and rejuvenate itself. Another potential investor who looked at Lancel said it had suffered from under-investment and excessive management turnover. Having had about a dozen chief executives since 1997, the company will now need to be given time by its new owners to implement long-term strategy, industry observers said. (Editing by Giles Elgood)