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| The '''Coppock curve''' or '''Coppock indicator''' is a [[technical analysis]] indicator for long-term stock market investors created by [[Edwin Coppock (economist)|E.S.C. Coppock]],<!-- not to be confused with Edwin Coppock brother of [[Barclay Coppock]]--> first published in ''[[Barron's Magazine]]'' on October 15, 1962.<ref name="thesis">{{cite web | url = http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/AD480859 | title = An Analysis of Stock Market Indicators | author = Donald J. Durham Jr. | work = [[Dissertation|Master's thesis]], [[Naval Postgraduate School]] | publisher = [[Defense Technical Information Center]] | chapter = III | location = Monterey, California | year = 1964 | quote = The Trendex model first came to the attention of the author when it was described by E.S.C. Coppock in the 15 October 1962 issue of ''Barron's''.}}</ref>
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| The indicator is designed for use on a monthly time scale. It's the sum of a 14-month [[rate of change (technical analysis)|rate of change]] and 11-month rate of change, smoothed by a 10-period [[moving average (finance)#Weighted moving average|weighted moving average]].
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| : <math> Coppock = WMA[10] \; of \; (ROC[14] + ROC[11])</math>.
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| Coppock, the founder of Trendex Research in [[San Antonio, Texas]],<!-- 404 <ref>[http://www.theforexvillage.com/Interviews-withTopTraders/Interview-with-John-Bollinger.html 2001 Interview with John Bollinger] from ''Active Trader'' magazine via theforexvillage.com</ref>--> was an economist. He had been asked by the [[Episcopal Church (United States)|Episcopal Church]] to identify buying opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like [[bereavement]]s and required a period of [[mourning]]. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation.<ref>[http://www.finance-glossary.com/terms/Coppock-Indicator.htm?ginPtrCode=00000&id=2262&PopupMode= Coppock Indicator] at the Global-Investor Glossary</ref>
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| A buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design). The indicator is [[trend-following]], and based on averages, so by its nature it doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become established.
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| Coppock designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model"<ref name="thesis"/>) for the [[S&P 500]] index{{citation needed|date=June 2009}}, and it's been applied to similar stock indexes like the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]]. It's not regarded as well-suited to commodity markets, since bottoms there are more rounded than the spike lows found in stocks.<ref>[http://www.topline-charts.com/Encyclopedia/coppock_curve_interpretation.htm Coppock Curve Interpretation page] at Topline Investment Graphics</ref>
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| ==Variations==
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| Although designed for monthly use, a daily calculation over the same period can be made, converting the periods to 294 day and 231 day rate of changes, and a 210 day weighted moving average.<ref>[http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/coppock_indicator.htm Coppock Indicator page] at Incredible Charts</ref>
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| A slightly different version of the indicator is still used by the ''[[Investors Chronicle]]'', a British investment magazine. The main difference is that the Investors Chronicle version does include the sell signals, although it stresses that they are to be treated with caution. This is because such signals could merely be a dip in a continuing bull market.<ref>[http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/InvestmentGuides/Shares/article/20070906/ce752b0c-727f-11dc-baee-00144f2af8e8/ICCoppock-Sell-sell-sell.jsp IC/Coppock: Sell, sell, sell] from Investors Chronicle<!-- Bot generated title --></ref>
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| Jerry Samet has successfully used the Coppock indicator using weekly close data vs. monthly close. This indicator greatly helps with the definition of the intermediate term market moves of 6-weeks to 12-month duration. Mike Scott has determined that the weekly Coppock used in conjunction with Investor's Business Daily Market Direction calls that a Coppock buy signal that occurs within plus or minus 2 weeks of an IBD Follow-Through Day correctly identifies successfully rallies 79% of the time in bull markets and 45% of the time in bear markets. Success here is defined by a NASDAQ market that rallies at least 9 or 10% over at least a 5 or 6 week period.{{Citation needed|date=June 2011}}
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| == References ==
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| {{reflist}}
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| ==External links==
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| * [http://www.earnforex.com/mt5-forex-indicators/Coppock.mq5 MQL5 implementation of Coppock curve]
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| {{technical analysis}}
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| [[Category:Market indicators]]
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