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In [[epidemiology]], '''attributable risk''' is the difference in rate of a condition between an exposed population and an unexposed population.<ref name="url3. Comparing disease rates">{{cite web |url=http://www.bmj.com/about-bmj/resources-readers/publications/epidemiology-uninitiated/3-comparing-disease-rates |title=Epidemiology for the uninitiated: 3. Comparing disease rates |format= |work= |accessdate=2011-01-05}}</ref> Attributable risk is mostly calculated in [[cohort]] studies, where individuals are assembled on exposure status and followed over a period of time. Investigators count the occurrence of the diseases. The cohort is then subdivided by the level of exposure and the frequency of disease is compared between subgroups. One is considered exposed and another unexposed. The formula commonly used in Epidemiology books for Attributable risk is Ie - Iu = AR, where Ie = Incidence in exposed and Iu = incidence in unexposed. We can calculate AR percent once we calculate AR. The formula for that is 100*(Ie - Iu)/Ie .
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Note: ''Ie'' is calculated by simply dividing the number of exposed people who get the disease by the total number who are exposed (N-exposed<sub>dis</sub> / N-exposed<sub>tot</sub> = Ie). Similarly, the ''Iu'' is calculated by dividing the number of unexposed people who get the disease by the total number who are not exposed (N-unexposed<sub>dis</sub> / N-unexposed<sub>tot</sub> = Iu).
 
The concept was first proposed by Levin in 1953.<ref name="isbn0-471-52629-0">{{cite book |author=Paik, Myunghee Cho; Fleiss, Joseph L.; Levin, Bruce R. |title=Statistical methods for rates and proportions |publisher=J. Wiley-Interscience |location=Hoboken, NJ |year=2003 |pages=151  |isbn=0-471-52629-0 |oclc= |doi= |accessdate=}}</ref><ref name="pmid13124110">{{cite journal |author=Levin ML |title=The occurrence of lung cancer in man |journal=Acta Unio Int Contra Cancrum |volume=9 |issue=3 |pages=531–41 |year=1953 |pmid=13124110 |doi= |url=}}</ref>
 
==Diversity of interpretation==
There is some variation in how the term is used.
 
The term '''population attributable risk (PAR)''' has been described as the reduction in [[incidence (epidemiology)|incidence]] that would be observed if the population were entirely unexposed, compared with its current (actual) exposure pattern.<ref>{{cite book | author = Rothman K | coauthor=Greenland S | title = Modern Epidemiology, 2nd Edition | publisher = Lippincott Williams & Wilkins | year = 1998 }}</ref> In this context, the comparison is to the existing pattern of exposure, not the absence of exposure.
 
There is some ambiguity in terminology. Population attributable risk is often simply called "attributable risk" (AR), and the latter term is most often associated with the above PAR definition.  However, some epidemiologists use "attributable risk" when referring to the [[excess risk]], also called the risk difference or rate difference.  
 
[[Sander Greenland|Greenland]] and [[James Robins|Robins]] distinguished between excess fraction and etiologic fraction in 1988.<ref>{{cite journal |  author = Greenland S |authorlink=Sander Greenland | coauthors= [[James Robins|Robins JM]]. | title = Conceptual problems in the definition and interpretation of attributable fractions. | journal = Am J Epidemiol. | year = 1988 | volume = 128 | pages = 1185–1197 |  pmid = 3057878 |  issue = 6 }}</ref>
 
* ''Etiologic fraction'' is the proportion of the cases that the exposure had played a causal role in its development.
: It is defined as:<ref>[http://books.google.dk/books?id=5OkyFkYOn0QC&printsec=frontcover&hl=en Page 43 in:]
Case control studies: design, conduct, analysis
By James J. Schlesselman, Paul D. Stolley
Edition: illustrated
Published by Oxford University Press US, 1982
ISBN 0-19-502933-X, 9780195029338
354 pages</ref>
 
:<math> EF = \frac{N_e - N_n}{N_e} </math>
:where:
:EF = Etiologic fraction
:''N''<sub>e</sub> = Number of exposed individuals in a population that develop the disease
:''N''<sub>n</sub> = Number of unexposed individuals in the same population that develop the disease.
 
* ''Excess fraction'', however, is the proportion of the cases that occurs among exposed population that is in excess in comparison with the unexposed.
 
All etiologic cases are excess cases, but not vice versa. From the standpoint of both law and biology it is important to measure the etiology fraction. In most epidemiological studies, PAR measures only the excess fraction. (Larger than etiologic fraction)
 
==Uses==
Population attributable fraction guides policymakers in planning public health interventions.<ref>{{cite journal | author = Northridge ME. | title = public health methods: attributable risk as a link between causality and public health action. | journal = Am J Public Health | year = 1995 |volume = 85 | pages = 1202–1203 | pmid = 7661224 | doi = 10.2105/AJPH.85.9.1202 | issue = 9 | pmc = 1615585}}</ref> Population attributable fraction (PAF), population attributable risk proportion, and population attributable risk percent are all the same as PAR.
 
As a hypothetical example, if all the radon in a community were removed, and everything else were left unchanged, the number of lung cancer cases would decrease. This decrease is the '''population attributable risk''' for lung cancer from [[radon]].
 
==Combined PAR==
The PAR for a combination of risk factors is the proportion of the disease that can be attributed to any of the risk factors studied. The combined PAR is usually lower than the sum of individual PARs since a diseased case can simultaneously be attributed to more than one risk factor and so be counted twice.
 
Assuming a multuplicative model with no interaction (i.e. no departure from multiplicative scale), combined PAR can be manually calculated by this formula:
 
: <math> \text{Combined PAR} = 1 - (1-\text{PAR}_1)(1-\text{PAR}_2)(1-\text{PAR}_3)\cdots. \, </math>
 
==References==
{{Reflist|2}}
 
{{Medical research studies}}
 
[[Category:Epidemiology]]

Latest revision as of 19:46, 20 November 2014

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