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In [[econometrics]] and [[official statistics]], and particularly in [[banking]], the '''Divisia monetary aggregates index''' is an [[Index (economics)|index]] of [[money supply]]. It is a particular application of a [[Divisia index]] to monetary aggregates.
 
==Background==
 
The [[Money supply|monetary aggregates]] used by most [[central bank]]s (notably the U.S. [[Federal Reserve Board|Federal Reserve]]) are simple-sum indexes, in which all monetary components are assigned the same weight:
 
:<math>M_{t}=\sum_{j=1}^{n}x_{jt},</math>
 
where <math>x_{jt}</math> is one of the <math>n</math> monetary components of the monetary aggregate <math>M_{t}</math>. This [[summation]] index implies that all monetary components contribute equally to the money total, and it views all components as dollar for dollar [[Substitute good|perfect substitutes]]. It has been argued that such an [[Index (economics)|index]] does not weigh these components in a way that properly summarizes the services of the quantities of money.
 
Over the years, there have been many attempts at properly weighting monetary components within a simple-sum aggregate.  An index can rigorously apply [[microeconomic]]- and aggregation-theoretic foundations in the construction of [[Money supply|monetary aggregates]]. This approach to monetary aggregation was derived and advocated by [[William A. Barnett]] (1980) and has led to the construction of monetary aggregates based on Diewert's (1976) class of superlative quantity index numbers. The new aggregates are called the Divisia aggregates or Monetary Services Indexes.  [[Salam Fayyad]]'s 1986 PhD dissertation did early research with those aggregates using U.S. data.
 
This [[Divisia index]] (approximated in discrete time) is defined as
 
:<math>\log M_{t}^{D}-\log M_{t-1}^{D}=\sum_{j=1}^{n}s_{jt}^{*}(\log x_{jt}-\log x_{j,t-1}),</math>
 
according to which the growth rate of the aggregate is the [[Weighted mean|weighted average]] of the growth rates of the component quantities. The discrete time Divisia weights are defined as the expenditure shares averaged over the two periods of the change
 
:<math>s_{jt}^{*}=\frac{1}{2}(s_{jt}+s_{j,t-1}),</math>
 
for <math>j=1,..., n</math>, where
 
:<math>s_{jt}=\frac{\pi _{jt}x_{jt}}{\sum_{k=1}^{n}\pi _{kt}x_{kt}},</math>
 
is the expenditure share of [[asset]] <math>j</math> during period <math>t</math>, and <math>\pi _{jt}</math> is the user cost of asset <math>j</math>, derived by Barnett (1978),
 
:<math>\pi _{jt}=\frac{R_{t}-r_{jt}}{1+R_{t}},</math>
 
which is just the [[opportunity cost]] of holding a dollar's worth of the <math>j</math>th asset. In the last equation, <math>r_{jt}</math> is the [[Yield (finance)|market yield]] on the <math>j</math>th asset, and <math>R_{t}</math> is the yield available on a 'benchmark' asset that is held only to carry [[wealth]] between different time periods.
 
In the literature on aggregation and index number theory, the Divisia approach to monetary aggregation, <math>M_{t}^{D}</math>, is widely viewed as a viable and theoretically appropriate alternative to the simple-sum approach.  See, e.g., International Monetary Fund (2008), ''Macroeconomic Dynamics'' (2009), and ''Journal of Econometrics'' (2011). The simple-sum approach, <math>M_{t}</math>, which is still in use by some central banks, adds up imperfect substitutes, such as currency and non-negotiable certificates of deposit, without weights reflecting differences in their contributions to the economy's liquidity. A primary source of theory, applications, and data from the aggregation-theoretic approach to monetary aggregation is the [http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/index.php Center for Financial Stability] in New York City.  More details regarding the Divisia approach to monetary aggregation are provided by Barnett, Fisher, and Serletis (1992), Barnett and Serletis (2000), and Serletis (2007.  Divisia Monetary Aggregates are available for the United Kingdom by the [http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/ms/current/index.htm Bank of England], for the United States by the [http://research.stlouisfed.org/msi/2006msidata.html Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis], and for Poland by the [http://www.nbp.pl/Homen.aspx?f=en/statystyka/miary/miary.html National Bank of Poland].  Divisia monetary aggregates are maintained for internal use by the [http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html European Central Bank], the [http://www.boj.or.jp/en/ Bank of Japan], the [http://www.boi.org.il/en/dataandstatistics/pages/dma.aspx Bank of Israel], and the [http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm International Monetary Fund].
 
== References ==
* [http://econ.tepper.cmu.edu/barnett/Welcome.html Barnett, William A.] "The User Cost of Money".  ''Economics Letters'' (1978), 145-149.
 
* Barnett, William A.  "[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304407680900706 Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Aggregation and Index Number Theory]," ''Journal of Econometrics'' 14 (1980), 11-48.
 
* Barnett, William A. and Apostolos Serletis.  ''The Theory of Monetary Aggregation''. Contributions to Economic Analysis 245. Amsterdam: North-Holland (2000).
 
* Barnett, William A., Douglas Fisher, and Apostolos Serletis.  "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money".  ''Journal of Economic Literature'' 30 (1992), 2086-2119.
* [http://www.econ.ubc.ca/diewert/hmpgdie.htm Diewert, W. Erwin.]  "Exact and Superlative Index Numbers".  ''Journal of Econometrics'' 4 (1976), 115-146.
 
* Divisia, Francois. "L'Indice Monétaire et la Théorie de la Monnaie," ''Revue D'Économie Politique'' 39 (1925), 842-864.
 
* [http://books.google.com/books/about/Monetary_Asset_Component_Grouping_and_Ag.html?id=wWjOmQEACAAJ Fayad Salam]. "Monetary Asset Component Grouping and Aggregation: An Inquiry into the Definition of Money".  ([[Salam Fayad]]'s Ph.D. thesis, University of Texas, 1986.)
 
* International Monetary Fund.  "Monetary and Financial Statistics Compilation Guide." (2008), 183-184.
 
* ''Journal of Econometrics'', special issue on "Measurement with Theory," Elsevier journal, Amsterdam, vol. 161, no. 1, March (2011).
 
* [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYvVN4Y2u6Y Liu, Jia] ''Why the Fed Got it Wrong: The Divisia Index'', American Institute for Economic Research (2013).
 
* ''Macroeconomic Dynamics'', special issue on "Measurement with Theory," Cambridge University Press journal, Cambridge, UK, vol 13, supplement 2 (2009).
* [http://econ.ucalgary.ca/serletis.htm Serletis, Apostolos.] {{Wayback|date=20061001162140|url=http://econ.ucalgary.ca/serletis.htm|df=yes}} ''The Demand for Money: Theoretical and Empirical Approaches''. Springer (2007).
 
[[Category:Index numbers]]
[[Category:Monetary economics]]
[[Category:Finance]]
[[Category:Econometrics]]

Revision as of 06:41, 15 January 2014

In econometrics and official statistics, and particularly in banking, the Divisia monetary aggregates index is an index of money supply. It is a particular application of a Divisia index to monetary aggregates.

Background

The monetary aggregates used by most central banks (notably the U.S. Federal Reserve) are simple-sum indexes, in which all monetary components are assigned the same weight:

Mt=j=1nxjt,

where xjt is one of the n monetary components of the monetary aggregate Mt. This summation index implies that all monetary components contribute equally to the money total, and it views all components as dollar for dollar perfect substitutes. It has been argued that such an index does not weigh these components in a way that properly summarizes the services of the quantities of money.

Over the years, there have been many attempts at properly weighting monetary components within a simple-sum aggregate. An index can rigorously apply microeconomic- and aggregation-theoretic foundations in the construction of monetary aggregates. This approach to monetary aggregation was derived and advocated by William A. Barnett (1980) and has led to the construction of monetary aggregates based on Diewert's (1976) class of superlative quantity index numbers. The new aggregates are called the Divisia aggregates or Monetary Services Indexes. Salam Fayyad's 1986 PhD dissertation did early research with those aggregates using U.S. data.

This Divisia index (approximated in discrete time) is defined as

logMtDlogMt1D=j=1nsjt*(logxjtlogxj,t1),

according to which the growth rate of the aggregate is the weighted average of the growth rates of the component quantities. The discrete time Divisia weights are defined as the expenditure shares averaged over the two periods of the change

sjt*=12(sjt+sj,t1),

for j=1,...,n, where

sjt=πjtxjtk=1nπktxkt,

is the expenditure share of asset j during period t, and πjt is the user cost of asset j, derived by Barnett (1978),

πjt=Rtrjt1+Rt,

which is just the opportunity cost of holding a dollar's worth of the jth asset. In the last equation, rjt is the market yield on the jth asset, and Rt is the yield available on a 'benchmark' asset that is held only to carry wealth between different time periods.

In the literature on aggregation and index number theory, the Divisia approach to monetary aggregation, MtD, is widely viewed as a viable and theoretically appropriate alternative to the simple-sum approach. See, e.g., International Monetary Fund (2008), Macroeconomic Dynamics (2009), and Journal of Econometrics (2011). The simple-sum approach, Mt, which is still in use by some central banks, adds up imperfect substitutes, such as currency and non-negotiable certificates of deposit, without weights reflecting differences in their contributions to the economy's liquidity. A primary source of theory, applications, and data from the aggregation-theoretic approach to monetary aggregation is the Center for Financial Stability in New York City. More details regarding the Divisia approach to monetary aggregation are provided by Barnett, Fisher, and Serletis (1992), Barnett and Serletis (2000), and Serletis (2007. Divisia Monetary Aggregates are available for the United Kingdom by the Bank of England, for the United States by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and for Poland by the National Bank of Poland. Divisia monetary aggregates are maintained for internal use by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Israel, and the International Monetary Fund.

References

  • Barnett, William A. and Apostolos Serletis. The Theory of Monetary Aggregation. Contributions to Economic Analysis 245. Amsterdam: North-Holland (2000).
  • Barnett, William A., Douglas Fisher, and Apostolos Serletis. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money". Journal of Economic Literature 30 (1992), 2086-2119.
  • Diewert, W. Erwin. "Exact and Superlative Index Numbers". Journal of Econometrics 4 (1976), 115-146.
  • Divisia, Francois. "L'Indice Monétaire et la Théorie de la Monnaie," Revue D'Économie Politique 39 (1925), 842-864.
  • Fayad Salam. "Monetary Asset Component Grouping and Aggregation: An Inquiry into the Definition of Money". (Salam Fayad's Ph.D. thesis, University of Texas, 1986.)
  • International Monetary Fund. "Monetary and Financial Statistics Compilation Guide." (2008), 183-184.
  • Journal of Econometrics, special issue on "Measurement with Theory," Elsevier journal, Amsterdam, vol. 161, no. 1, March (2011).
  • Liu, Jia Why the Fed Got it Wrong: The Divisia Index, American Institute for Economic Research (2013).
  • Macroeconomic Dynamics, special issue on "Measurement with Theory," Cambridge University Press journal, Cambridge, UK, vol 13, supplement 2 (2009).
  • Serletis, Apostolos. The minimal educational requirement to take the REA or RES examination is four GCE "" level passes or equal. When you have taken the obligatory preparatory course offered by a CEA Authorised Course Supplier and want to apply for the exam, please click on right here.

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