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| {{Redirect|Hubbert peak|the episode of ''[[The West Wing]]''|The Hubbert Peak}}
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| [[File:Hubbert world 2004.svg|thumb|right|300px|2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in [[OPEC]] and the [[former Soviet Union]]]]
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| The '''Hubbert peak theory''' says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of [[petroleum]] production tends to follow a [[Logistic distribution|bell-shaped curve]]. It is one of the primary theories on [[peak oil]].
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| Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases because of the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.
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| The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.<ref name="Laherrere2005">Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19–20, 2005 [http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/ASPO2005_Laherrere.pdf]</ref><ref name="wood2003">{{cite web|url=http://www.geo.mtu.edu/svl/GE3320/OIL%20SEMINAR%20jrw.ppt |title=Peak Oil: The Looming Energy Crisis |author=J.R. Wood |publisher=[[Michigan Technological University]] |accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> The theory is named after American geophysicist [[M. King Hubbert]], who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
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| ==Hubbert's peak==
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| "Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions.
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| Hubbert's Peak was thought to have been achieved in the continental US in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at {{convert|10200000|oilbbl/d}} and then declined for several years since. Yet, recent advances in extraction technology and optimistic production forecasts has led to widespread skepticism of Hubbert's theory.{{citation needed|date=September 2013}}
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| [[Peak oil]] as a proper noun, or "Hubbert's peak" applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth would enter a terminal decline. On the basis of his theory, in a paper<ref name="Hubbert1956">Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels,M.K. Hubbert, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7–8-9, 1956 [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf]</ref> he presented to the [[American Petroleum Institute]] in 1956, Hubbert correctly predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental [[United States]] around 1965-1970. Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interview<ref name="Hubbert1976">{{cite web|url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImV1voi41YY |title=1976 Hubbert Clip |publisher=YouTube |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years.
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| ==Hubbert's theory==
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| ===Hubbert curve===
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| [[File:Hubbert-curve.png|thumb|The standard [[Hubbert curve]]. For applications, the ''x'' and ''y'' scales are replaced by time and production scales.]]
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| [[File:US Crude Oil Production and Imports.svg|thumb| U.S. Oil Production and Imports 1910 to 2012]]
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| [[File:NorwayoilproductionandHubbert2013.svg|thumb|Norway's oil production and a Hubbert curve approximating it.]]
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| In 1956, Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve without giving a precise formula; he later used the [[Hubbert curve]], the derivative of the [[logistic curve]],<ref>Bartlett A.A 1999 ,[http://www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/hubbert.htm "An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves."] Mathematical Geology.</ref> for estimating future production using past observed discoveries.
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| Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves ([[oil reserves]], coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.
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| The Hubbert curve satisfies these constraints. Furthermore, it is roughly symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when about half of the fossil fuel that will ultimately be produced has been produced. It also has a single peak.
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| Given past oil discovery and production data, a Hubbert curve that attempts to approximate past discovery data may be constructed and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way. Cavallo<ref name="cavallo">Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts, Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004 [http://www.springerlink.com/content/q363778431537157/fulltext.pdf]</ref> defines the Hubbert curve used to predict the U.S. peak as the derivative of:
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| :<math>
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| Q(t) = {Q_{{\rm max}}\over {1 + ae^{-bt}}}
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| </math>
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| where <math>Q</math><sub>max</sub> is the total resource available (ultimate recovery of crude oil), <math>Q(t)</math> the cumulative production, and <math>a</math> and <math>b</math> are constants. The year of maximum annual production (peak) is:
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| :<math>
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| t_{{\rm max}} = {1\over b}\ln \left({a} \right).
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| </math>
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| This is were the cumulative production <math>Q(t)</math> reaches the halve of the total available resource:
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| :<math>
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| Q(t) = Q_\text{max}/2
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| </math>
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| ===Use of multiple curves===
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| {{Expand section|date=June 2008}}
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| The sum of multiple Hubbert curves, a technique not developed by Hubbert himself, may be used in order to model more complicated real life scenarios.<ref>{{cite web
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| |url=http://dieoff.org/page191.htm
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| |title=The Hubbert curve : its strengths and weaknesses
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| |first=J.H. |last= Laherrère
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| |date=Feb 18, 2000
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| |accessdate=September 16, 2011
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| |publisher= http://dieoff.org }}</ref>
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| ===Definition of reserves===
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| Almost all of Hubbert peaks must be put in the context of high [[ore grade]]. Except for fissionable materials, any resource, including oil, is theoretically recoverable from the environment with the right technology. In contrast, Hubbert was concerned with "easy" oil, "easy" metals, and so forth that could be recovered without greatly advanced mining efforts and how to time the necessity of such resource acquisition advancements or substitutions by knowing an "easy" resource's probable peak. Also, as reserves become more difficult to extract there is the possibility that mining or alternatives are too expensive for [[developing countries]].
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| For [[heavy crude]] or deep water drilling attempts, such as [[Noxal oil field]] or [[tar sands]] or [[oil shale]], the price of the oil extracted will have to include the extra effort required to mine these resources. According to the U.S. [[Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement]] (formerly, the Minerals Management Service), areas such as the [[Outer Continental Shelf]] may also incur higher costs due to environmental concerns. So not all [[oil reserves]] are equal, and the more difficult reserves are predicted by Hubbert as being typical of the post-peak side of the Hubbert curve.
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| ===Reliability===
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| ====Crude Oil====
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| [[File:Hubbert US high.svg|right|thumb|200px|US oil production (Lower 48 states crude oil only) and Hubbert high estimate for the US.]]
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| Hubbert, in his 1956 paper,<ref name="Hubbert1956"/> presented two scenarios for US crude oil production:
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| * most likely estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6%, an ultimate resource equal to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965. The size of the ultimate resource was taken from a synthesis of estimates by well-known oil geologists and the US Geological Survey, which Hubbert judged to be the most likely case.
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| * upper-bound estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equal to 6% and ultimate resource equal to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970.
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| Hubbert's upper-bound estimate, which he regarded as optimistic, accurately predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970. Forty years later, the upper-bound estimate has also proven to be very accurate in terms of cumulative production, less so in terms of annual production. For 2005, the upper-bound Hubbert model predicts 178.2 Gb cumulative and 1.17 Gb current production; actual US production was 176.4 Gb cumulative crude oil + condensate (1% lower than the upper bound estimate), with annual production of 1.55 Gb (32% higher than the upper bound estimate).
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| Hubbert's 1956 production curves depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, but he was dissatisfied by the uncertainty this introduced, given the various estimates ranging from 110 billion to 590 billion barrels for the US. Starting in his 1962 publication, he made his calculations, including that of ultimate recovery, based only on mathematical analysis of production rates, proved reserves, and new discoveries, independent of any geological estimates of future discoveries. He concluded that the ultimate recoverable oil resource of the contiguous 48 states was 170 billion barrels, with a production peak in 1966 or 1967. He considered that because his model incorporated past technical advances, that any future advances would occur at the same rate, and were also incorporated.<ref>M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, p.60.</ref> Hubbert continued to defend his calculation of 170 billion barrels in his publications of 1965 and 1967, although by 1967 he had moved the peak forward slightly, to 1968 or 1969.<ref>M. King Hubbert, "National Academy of Sciences Report on Energy Resources: reply," AAPG Bulletin, Oct. 1965, v.49 n.10 p.1720-1727.</ref><ref>M. King Hubbert, "Degree of advancement of petroleum exploration in United States," AAPG Bulletin, Nov. 1967, v.51 n.11 p.2207-2227.</ref>
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| A post-hoc analysis of peaked oil wells, fields, regions and nations found that Hubbert's model was the "most widely useful" (providing the best fit to the data), though many areas studied had a sharper "peak" than predicted.<ref name=Brandt2007>{{Cite journal
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| | author = Brandt, A. R.
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| | year = 2007
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| | title = Testing Hubbert
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| | journal = Energy Policy
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| | volume = 35
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| | issue = 5
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| | pages = 3074–3088
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| | doi = 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004
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| | url = http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421506004265
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| }}</ref>
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| ====Natural Gas====
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| [[File:Hubbert US Lower 48 Gas Prediction - 1962.png|thumb|Hubbert's 1962 prediction of US lower 48-state gas production, versus actual production through 2012]]
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| Hubbert also predicted that natural gas production would follow a logistic curve similar to that of oil. At right is his gas production curve for the United States, published in 1962.<ref>M. King Hubbert, 1962, "Energy Resources," National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000-D, p.81-83.</ref>
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| ==Economics==
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| [[File:Oil imports.PNG|thumb|300px|Oil imports by country Pre-2006]]
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| ===Energy return on energy investment===
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| When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI or [[EROEI]]). Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process{{Citation needed|date=January 2013}}. As the EROEI drops to one, or equivalently the [[Net energy gain]] falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source. This happens long before the resource is physically exhausted.
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| Note that it is important to understand the distinction between a barrel of oil, which is a measure of oil, and a [[barrel of oil equivalent]] (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is. Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 0.5 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using [[natural gas]] to fuel [[enhanced oil recovery]]. Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most [[Athabasca Tar Sands]] plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to [[Ethanol fuel]] produced with a net EROEI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial because methods to measure EROEI are in debate.
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| ===Growth-based economic models===
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| [[File:World energy consumption 2005-2035 EIA.png|thumb|World energy consumption & predictions, 2005-2035. ''Source: International Energy Outlook 2011.'']]
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| Insofar as [[economic growth]] is driven by oil consumption growth, post-peak societies must adapt. Hubbert believed:<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/wwf1976/ |title=Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History |publisher=Hubbertpeak.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref>
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| {{cquote|Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have known nothing but exponential growth and in parallel we have evolved what amounts to an exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily dependent upon the continuance of exponential growth for its stability that it is incapable of reckoning with problems of nongrowth.}}
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| Some economists describe the problem as [[uneconomic growth]] or a [[false economy]]. At the political right, [[Fred Ikle]] has warned about "conservatives addicted to the Utopia of Perpetual Growth".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://dieoff.org/page68.htm |title=Our Perpetual Growth Utopia |publisher=Dieoff.org |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> Brief oil interruptions in 1973 and 1979 markedly slowed—but did not stop—the growth of world [[GDP]].<ref>http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/pdf/050206.pdf</ref>
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| Between 1950 and 1984, as the [[Green Revolution]] transformed [[agriculture]] around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by [[fossil fuels]] in the form of [[fertilizers]] (natural gas), [[pesticides]] (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>[http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html] {{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref>
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| David Pimentel, professor of ecology and [[agriculture]] at [[Cornell University]], and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study ''Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy'' the maximum [[U.S. population]] for a [[sustainability|sustainable economy]] at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy [[world population]] will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.<ref>{{cite web|last=Cynic |first=Aaron |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/281.html |title=Eating Fossil Fuels |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2003-10-02 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> Without population reduction, this study predicts an agricultural crisis beginning in 2020, becoming critical c. 2050. The [[Peak oil|peaking of global oil]] along with the decline in regional [[natural gas]] production may precipitate this agricultural crisis sooner than generally expected. [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]] claims that coming decades could see spiraling [[food]] prices without relief and massive [[starvation]] on a global level such as never experienced before.<ref>[http://www.soilassociation.org/peakoil ]{{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author= |url=http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225 |title=The Oil Drum: Europe | Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference |publisher=Europe.theoildrum.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref>
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| ==Hubbert peaks==
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| Although Hubbert peak theory receives most attention in relation to [[peak oil|peak oil production]], it has also been applied to other natural resources.
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| ===Natural gas===
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| {{Main|Peak gas}}
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| Doug Reynolds predicted in 2005 that the North American peak would occur in 2007.<ref>{{cite news |first=Bill |last=White |url=http://dwb.adn.com/money/industries/oil/v-printer/story/7296501p-7208184c.html |title=State's consultant says nation is primed for using Alaska gas |date=December 17, 2005 |newspaper=Anchorage Daily News}}</ref> Bentley predicted a world "decline in conventional gas production from about 2020".<ref>{{cite journal |title=Viewpoint - Global oil & gas depletion: an overview
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| |first=R.W. |last=Bentley |journal=Energy Policy |volume=30 |issue=3 |pages=189–205 |year=2002 |url=http://www.oilcrisis.com/bentley/depletionOverview.pdf |format=PDF |doi=10.1016/S0301-4215(01)00144-6}}</ref>
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| ===Coal===
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| {{Main|Peak coal}}
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| Although observers believe that peak coal is significantly further out than peak oil, Hubbert studied the specific example of [[Anthracite coal|anthracite]] in the USA, a high grade coal, whose production peaked in the 1920s. Hubbert found that anthracite matches a curve closely.<ref>[http://www.geo.umn.edu/courses/3005/resource.html ]{{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref> Pennsylvania's coal production also matches Hubbert's curve closely, but this does not mean that coal in Pennsylvania is exhausted—far from it. If production in Pennsylvania returned at its all time high, there are reserves for 190 years.{{Citation needed|date = July 2010}} Hubbert had recoverable [[Coal#World coal reserves|coal reserves worldwide]] at 2500 × 10<sup>9</sup> metric tons and peaking around 2150 (depending on usage).
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| More recent estimates suggest an earlier peak. ''Coal: Resources and Future Production'' (PDF 630KB<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf |title=Startseite |publisher=Energy Watch Group |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref>), published on April 5, 2007 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years.<ref name="energybulletin.net">{{cite web|last=Phillips |first=Ari |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/29919.html |title=Peak coal: sooner than you think |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2007-05-21 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> Reporting on this, Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal is likely to come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter/179 |title=Museletter |publisher=Richard Heinberg |date=2009-12-01 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> A second study,
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| ''The Future of Coal'' by B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves of the Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, reaches similar conclusions and states that
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| ""coal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future".<ref name="energybulletin.net"/>
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| Work by [[David Rutledge]] of [[Caltech]] predicts that the total of world coal production will amount to only about 450 [[gigatonne]]s.<ref name=NS>"Coal: Bleak outlook for the black stuff", by David Strahan, [[New Scientist]], [http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19726391.800-coal-bleak-outlook-for-the-black-stuff.html January 19, 2008, pp. 38-41].</ref> This implies that coal is running out faster than usually assumed.
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| Finally, insofar as global [[peak oil]] and peak in natural gas are expected anywhere from imminently to within decades at most, any increase in coal production (mining) per annum to compensate for declines in oil or natural gas production, would necessarily translate to an earlier date of peak as compared with peak coal under a scenario in which annual production remains constant.
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| ===Fissionable materials===
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| {{Main|Peak uranium}}
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| In a paper in 1956,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf |title=Nuclear Energy And The Fossil Fuels |format=PDF |author=M. King Hubbert |date=June 1956 |publisher=[[ Shell Development Company]] |accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> after a review of US fissionable reserves, Hubbert notes of nuclear power:
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| {{cquote|There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may at last have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future."}}
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| Technologies such as the [[thorium fuel cycle]], [[nuclear reprocessing|reprocessing]] and [[Fast breeder reactor|fast breeders]] can, in theory, considerably extend the life of [[uranium]] reserves. [[Roscoe Bartlett]] claims<ref>[http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/5-2-06%20Oil%20Speech.pdf] {{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref>
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| {{cquote|Our current throwaway nuclear cycle uses up the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years.}}
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| Caltech physics professor [[David Goodstein]] has stated<ref>{{cite web|last=Jones|first=Tony|title=Professor Goodstein discusses lowering oil reserves|url=http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2004/s1249211.htm|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation|accessdate=14 April 2013|date=23 November 2004}}</ref> that
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| {{cquote|... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.}}
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| ===Helium===
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| Almost all [[helium]] on Earth is a result of [[radioactive decay]] of [[uranium]] and [[thorium]]. Helium is extracted by [[fractional distillation]] from natural gas, which contains up to 7% helium. The world's largest helium-rich natural gas fields are found in the United States, especially in the [[Hugoton Natural Gas Area|Hugoton]] and nearby gas fields in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The extracted helium is stored underground in the [[National Helium Reserve]] near [[Amarillo]], [[Texas]], the self-proclaimed "Helium Capital of the World". Helium production is expected to decline along with natural gas production in these areas.
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| Helium is the second-lightest chemical element in the Universe, causing it to rise to the upper layers of Earth's [[atmosphere]]. Helium atoms are so light that the Earth's gravity field is simply not strong enough to trap helium in the atmosphere and it dissipates slowly into space and is lost forever.<ref>{{cite journal
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| |title=Helium in the Terrestrial Atmosphere
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| |author=Kockarts, G.
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| |publisher=Space Science Reviews
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| |volume=14| issue = 6, pp.723–757
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| |bibcode=1973SSRv...14..723K
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| |year=1973
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| |page=723
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| |journal=Space Science Reviews
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| |doi=10.1007/BF00224775
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| }}</ref>
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| ===Transition metals===
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| {{Main|Peak copper}}
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| Hubbert applied his theory to "rock containing an abnormally high concentration of a given metal"<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/wwf1976 |title=Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History |publisher=Hubbertpeak.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> and reasoned that the peak production for metals such as [[copper]], [[tin]], [[lead]], [[zinc]] and others would occur in the time frame of decades and [[iron]] in the time frame of two centuries like coal. The price of copper rose 500% between 2003 and 2007<ref>{{cite web|url=http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/copper/mcs-2008-coppe.pdf |title=Copper |format=PDF |author=Daniel L. Edelstein |publisher=[[U.S. Geological Survey]], Mineral Commodity Summaries |date=January 2008 |accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> and was attributed by some{{who|date=December 2013}} to [[peak copper]].<ref name=Leonard2006>{{cite web
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| |url=http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2006/03/02/peak_copper/index.html
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| |title=Peak copper?
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| |publisher=Salon - How the World Works
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| |author=Andrew Leonard
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| |date=2006-03-02
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| |accessdate=2008-03-23
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| }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author= |url=http://news.silverseek.com/CharlestonVoice/1135873932.php |title=Peak Copper Means Peak Silver - SilverSeek.com |publisher=News.silverseek.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> Copper prices later fell, along with many other commodities and stock prices, as demand shrank from fear of a [[Late 2000s recession|global recession]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN2747917920090129 |title=COMMODITIES-Demand fears hit oil, metals prices | Reuters |publisher=Uk.reuters.com |date=2009-01-29 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> [[Lithium]] availability is a concern for a fleet of [[Li-ion battery]] using cars but a paper published in 1996 estimated that world reserves are adequate for at least 50 years.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2530187 |title=Impact of lithium abundance and cost on electric vehicle battery applications |publisher=Cat.inist.fr |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> A similar prediction<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_roads/documents/page/dft_roads_024056-01.hcsp |title=Department for Transport - GOV.UK |publisher=Dft.gov.uk |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> for [[platinum]] use in fuel cells notes that the metal could be easily recycled.
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| ===Precious metals===
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| The possibility of Peak Gold has emerged recently.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/Barrick-shuts-hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html |title=Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out |publisher=Telegraph |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> Aaron Regent president of the Canadian gold giant Barrik Gold said that global output has been falling by roughly one million ounces a year since the start of the decade. The total global mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run. "There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London. "Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.
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| Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970. Output fell a further 14 percent in South Africa in 2008 as companies were forced to dig ever deeper - at greater cost - to replace depleted reserves.
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| ===Phosphorus===
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| {{Main|Peak phosphorus}}
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| [[Phosphorus]] supplies are essential to farming and depletion of reserves is estimated at somewhere from 60 to 130 years.<ref>[http://www.apda.pt/apda_resources/APDA.Biblioteca/eureau%5Cposition%20papers%5Cthe%20reuse%20of%20phosphorus.pdf] {{Dead link|date=June 2010}}</ref> According to a 2008 study, the total reserves of phosphorus are estimated to be approximately 3,200 MT, with a peak production at 28 MT/year in 2034.<ref>
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| {{cite web
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| |url=http://phosphorusfutures.net/peak-phosphorus
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| |title=Peak Phosphorus: the sequel to Peak Oil
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| |publisher=Global Phosphorus Research Initiative (GPRI)
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| |author=Stuart White, Dana Cordell
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| |year=2008
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| |accessdate=2009-12-11
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| }}</ref> Individual countries' supplies vary widely; without a recycling initiative America's supply<ref>{{cite web|url=http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/phospmcs06.pdf |title=Phosphate Rock|format=PDF |author=Stephen M. Jasinski |publisher=[[U.S. Geological Survey]], Mineral Commodity Summaries |date=January 2006 |accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> is estimated around 30 years.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ecosanres.org/PDF%20files/Fact_sheets/ESR4lowres.pdf |title=Closing the Loop on Phosphorus |format=PDF |author=[[Ecological Sanitation Research Programme]] |publisher=[[Stockholm Environment Institute]] |date=May 2008 |accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> Phosphorus supplies affect agricultural output which in turn limits alternative fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol. Its increasing price and scarcity (global price of rock phosphate rose 8-fold in the 2 years to mid 2008) could change global agricultural patterns. Lands, perceived as marginal because of remoteness, but with very high phosphorus content, such as the [[Gran Chaco]]<ref>{{cite news | title = A postcard from the central Chaco | author = Don Nicol | accessdate = 2009-01-23
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| | url = http://www.breedleader.com.au/images/chaco%20postcard%20.pdf | quote = alluvial sandy soils have phosphorus levels of up to 200-300 ppm}}</ref> may get more agricultural development, while other farming areas, where nutrients are a constraint, may drop below the line of profitability.
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| ===Peak water===
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| {{Main|Peak water}}
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| Hubbert's original analysis did not apply to renewable resources. However, [[over-exploitation]] often results in a Hubbert peak nonetheless. A modified Hubbert curve applies to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced.<ref>{{cite web
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| |url=http://www.worldwater.org/data20082009/ch01.pdf
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| |title=The World's Water 2008-2009, Ch 1.
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| |publisher=[[Pacific Institute]]
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| |author=Meena Palaniappan and Peter H. Gleick
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| |year=2008
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| |accessdate=2009-01-31
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| }}</ref>
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| For example, a reserve such as the [[Ogallala Aquifer]] can be mined at a rate that far exceeds replenishment. This turns much of the world's underground water<ref>[http://www.uswaternews.com/archives/arcsupply/6worllarg2.html] {{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref> and lakes<ref>[http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update47_data.htm ]{{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref> into finite resources with peak usage debates similar to oil. These debates usually center around agriculture and suburban water usage but generation of electricity<ref>[http://www.epa.gov/cleanrgy/water_resource.htm ]{{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref> from nuclear energy or coal and tar sands mining mentioned above is also water resource intensive. The term [[fossil water]] is sometimes used to describe aquifers whose water is not being recharged.
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| ===Renewable resources===
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| *'''[[Fisheries]]''': At least one researcher has attempted to perform Hubbert linearization ([[Hubbert curve]]) on the [[whaling]] industry, as well as charting the transparently dependent price of caviar on sturgeon depletion.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=34&Itemid=39 |title=How General is the Hubbert Curve? |publisher=Aspoitalia.net |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> The [[Collapse of the Atlantic northwest cod fishery|Atlantic northwest cod fishery]] was a [[renewable resource]], but the numbers of fish taken exceeded the fishs rate of recovery. The end of the cod fishery does match the [[Exponential decay|exponential]] drop of the Hubbert bell curve. Another example is the [[cod]] of the North Sea.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/multihub.htm |title=Laherrere: Multi-Hubbert Modeling |publisher=Hubbertpeak.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> The comparison of the cases of fisheries and of mineral extraction tells us that the human pressure on the environment is causing a wide range of resources to go through a depletion cycle which follows a Hubbert curve.
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| *'''[[Birds]]''': The [[Passenger Pigeon]] was a renewable food resource but went extinct following the [[Exponential decay|exponential]] drop of the Hubbert bell curve.
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| *'''[[Herbivore]]''': The [[Bubal hartebeest]] was a renewable food resource but went extinct following the [[Exponential decay|exponential]] drop of the Hubbert bell curve.
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| *'''[[Wood]]''': The trees on [[Easter Island]] were a renewable resource but all were cut down in the 17th century, following the Hubbert bell curve, but could be [[Reforestation|restored]]. The Amazon rain forest is a renewable resource, but due to [[Amazon deforestation|deforestation]] the forest may end as a Hubbert curve.{{citation needed|date=November 2013}} [[Deforestation#Industrial era|Rainforests 50 years ago covered 14%]] of the world and today are at half that number.{{citation needed|date=November 2013}}
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| *'''Air/[[oxygen]]''': Half the world's oxygen is produced by [[phytoplankton]]. The numbers of plankton have dropped by 40% since the 1950s.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nbcnews.com/id/38451744/ns/us_news-environment#.UgzfIdKOSrN |title=Plankton, base of ocean food web, in big decline - US news - Environment - Climate Change |publisher=NBC News |date=2010-07-28 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> With the [[ocean acidification|acidification of the ocean]] the planet may lose all the plankton and the plankton death would follow the [[Exponential decay|exponential]] drop of the Hubbert bell curve.{{citation needed|date=November 2013}}
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| *[[Peak water#Peak water comparison with peak oil|'''Water''']]: The [[Aral Sea]] was depleted following the Hubbert bell curve, but could be restored. The amount of water it had lost is the equivalent of completely draining Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.{{citation needed|date=November 2013}}
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| ==Criticisms of peak oil ==
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| Economist Michael Lynch<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.energyseer.com/MikeLynch.html |title=Energyseer, Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc., Seer |publisher=Energyseer.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> argues that the theory behind the Hubbert curve is too simplistic and relies on an overly [[Malthusianism|Malthusian]] point of view.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.energyseer.com/NewPessimism.pdf |format=PDF |title=The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) |author=Michael C. Lynch |publisher=Strategic Energy & Economic Research, Inc. |accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> Lynch claims that Campbell's predictions for world oil production are strongly biased towards underestimates, and that Campbell has repeatedly pushed back the date.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Lynch/ |title=Michael Lynch Hubbert Peak of Oil Production |publisher=Hubbertpeak.com |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref><ref>{{cite book | title= Oil Crisis | last= Campbell | first=CJ | year= 2005 | isbn= 0-906522-39-0 | page= 90 | publisher= Multi-Science Pub. Co. | location= Brentwood, Essex, England }}</ref>
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| Leonardo Maugeri, vice president of the Italian energy company [[Eni]], argues that nearly all of peak estimates do not take into account [[unconventional oil]] even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling because of improved technology. He also notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today because of new technology and predicts this trend will continue. The ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Maugeri |first=L. |year=2004 |url=http://www.condition.org/sm4602.htm |title=Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |pages=1114–5 |doi=10.1126/science.1096427 |volume=304 |pmid=15155935 |issue=5674}}</ref> These improvements occurred even with low investment in new [[exploration]] and upgrading [[technology]] because of the low oil prices during the last 20 years. However, Maugeri feels that encouraging more exploration will require relatively high oil prices.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.forbes.com/home/free_forbes/2006/0724/042.html | work=Forbes | date=July 24, 2006 | title=Oil, Oil Everywhere}}</ref>
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| [[Edward Luttwak]], an economist and historian, claims that unrest in countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq has led to a massive underestimate of oil reserves.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=18 |title=The truth about global oil supply|publisher=Thefirstpost.co.uk|accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) responds by claiming neither Russia nor Iran are troubled by unrest currently, but Iraq is.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.peakoil.net/Luttwak.html |title=ASPO - The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas |publisher=Peakoil.net |date= |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref>
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| [[Cambridge Energy Research Associates]] authored a report that is critical of Hubbert-influenced predictions:<ref>[http://cera.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0236-821_ITM] {{dead link|date=November 2013}}</ref>
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| {{cquote|Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert's methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected.}}
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| [[Cambridge Energy Research Associates|CERA]] does not believe there will be an endless abundance of oil, but instead believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly,<ref>{{cite web|last=Valentine |first=Katie |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/22381.html |title=CERA says peak oil theory is faulty |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2006-11-14 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref><!--<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/22381.html |title=CERA says peak oil theory is faulty |publisher=[[Energy Bulletin]] |date=2006-11-14}}</ref> --> and that production will reach 40 Mb/d by 2015.<ref>{{cite web|last=Valentine |first=Katie |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/node/19120 |title=CERA's report is over-optimistic |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2006-08-10 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref>
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| Alfred J. Cavallo, while predicting a conventional oil supply shortage by no later than 2015, does not think Hubbert's peak is the correct theory to apply to world production.<ref>{{cite web|last=Valentine |first=Katie |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/6271.html |title=Oil: Caveat empty |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2005-05-24 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref>
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| ==Criticisms of peak element scenarios==
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| Although M. King Hubbert himself made major distinctions between decline in petroleum production versus depletion (or relative lack of it) for elements such as fissionable uranium and thorium,<ref>{{cite web|last=Whipple |first=Tom |url=http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13630 |title=Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels |publisher=Energybulletin.net |date=2006-03-08 |accessdate=2013-11-03}}</ref> some others have predicted peaks like [[peak uranium]] and [[peak phosphorus]] soon on the basis of published reserve figures compared to present and future production. According to some economists, though, the amount of proved reserves inventoried at a time may be considered "a poor indicator of the total future supply of a mineral resource."<ref name = reserve_economics>James D. Gwartney, Richard L. Stroup, Russell S. Sobel, David MacPherson. ''Economics: Private and Public Choice, 12th Edition''. South-Western Cengage Learning, page 730. [http://books.google.com/books?id=yIbH4R77OtMC&pg=PA730|Online extract, accessed 5-20-2012]</ref>
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| As some illustrations, tin, copper, iron, lead, and zinc all had both production from 1950 to 2000 and reserves in 2000 much exceed world reserves in 1950, which would be impossible except for how "proved reserves are like an inventory of cars to an auto dealer" at a time, having little relationship to the actual total affordable to extract in the future.<ref name = reserve_economics/> In the example of [[peak phosphorus]], additional concentrations exist intermediate between 71,000 Mt of identified reserves (USGS)<ref name = USGS2012>{{cite web|url=http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/mcs-2012-phosp.pdf |title=Phosphate Rock |format=PDF |author=Stephen M. Jasinski |publisher=[[U.S. Geological Survey]], Mineral Commodity Summaries |date=January 2012|accessdate=2013-12-27}}</ref> and the approximately 30,000,000,000 Mt of other phosphorus in Earth's crust, with the average rock being 0.1% phosphorus, so showing decline in human phosphorus production will occur soon would require far more than comparing the former figure to the 190 Mt/year of phosphorus extracted in mines (2011 figure).<ref name = reserve_economics/><ref name = USGS2012/><ref>American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #V33A-1161. [http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.V33A1161P Mass and Composition of the Continental Crust]</ref><ref name=Greenwood>Greenwood, N. N.; & Earnshaw, A. (1997). Chemistry of the Elements (2nd Edn.), Oxford:Butterworth-Heinemann. ISBN 0-7506-3365-4.</ref>
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| ==See also==
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| {{Portal|Energy|Sustainable development}}
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| {{div col}}
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| *[[Abiogenic petroleum origin]]
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| *[[Decline curve analysis]]
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| *[[Gross domestic product per barrel]]
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| *[[Fischer–Tropsch process]]
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| *[[Hirsch report]] on peak oil
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| *[[Hubbert curve]]
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| *[[Kuznets curve]]
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| *''[[Limits to Growth]]'' (book)
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| *[[Low-carbon economy]]
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| *[[Oil reserves]]
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| *[[Olduvai theory]]
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| *[[OPEC]]
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| *[[Reserves-to-production ratio]]
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| *[[World energy resources and consumption]]
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| {{div col end}}
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| | |
| ;Resource peaks
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| {{div col}}
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| * [[Peak coal]]
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| * [[Peak copper]]
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| * [[Peak food]]
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| * [[Peak gas]]
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| * [[Peak oil]]
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| * [[Peak phosphorus]]
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| * [[Peak soil]]
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| * [[Peak uranium]]
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| * [[Peak wheat]]
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| {{div col end}}
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| | |
| ==Notes==
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| {{Reflist|colwidth=30em}}
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| ==References==
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| *"Feature on United States oil production." (November, 2002) [http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter23_200211.pdf ASPO Newsletter #23].
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| *Greene, D.L. & J.L. Hopson. (2003). [http://www-cta.ornl.gov/cta/Publications/Reports/ORNL_TM_2003_259.pdf Running Out of and Into Oil: Analyzing Global Depletion and Transition Through 2050] ORNL/TM-2003/259, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October
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| *[http://www.mafhoum.com/press7/204E14.htm Economists Challenge Causal Link Between Oil Shocks And Recessions] (August 30, 2004). ''Middle East Economic Survey'' VOL. XLVII No 35
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| *Hubbert, M.K. (1982). Techniques of Prediction as Applied to Production of Oil and Gas, US Department of Commerce, NBS Special Publication 631, May 1982
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| {{Refend}}
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| ==External links==
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| {{External links|date=October 2010}}
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| '''Sites '''
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| * [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html U.S. Energy Information Agency Petroleum Data]
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| * [http://www.peakoil.net Association for the Study of Peak Oil]
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| * [http://www.peakoil.com PeakOil.com]
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| * [http://www.odac-info.org/ Oil Depletion Analysis Centre] in the [[United Kingdom]]
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| * [http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/ PowerSwitch] in the [[United Kingdom]]
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| * [http://www.energybulletin.net Energy Bulletin] Peak Oil related articles
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| * [http://www.theoildrum.com/ The Oil Drum] Discussions about Energy and our Future
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| * [http://www.carbonwar.co.uk/ Carbon War]
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| *[http://www.globaloilwatch.com Global Oil Watch] - Extensive peak oil library
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| *[http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/ Energy Export Databrowser]-Visual review of production and consumption trends for individual nations; data from the British Petroleum Statistical Review
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| '''Documentaries'''
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| * [http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html ''The Oilcrash''], 2006
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| '''Online videos'''
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| * [http://www.mkinghubbert.com/ M. King Hubbert speaking on Peak Oil in 1976]
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| '''Articles'''
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| * [http://www.technocracy.org/natureofgrowth.htm M. King Hubbert on the Nature of Growth. 1974]
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| *[http://www.crisisenergetica.org/staticpages/index.php?page=200509171321310 El mundo ante el cenit del petróleo] Fernando Bullón Miró
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| * M. King Hubbert, [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/science1949/ "Energy from Fossil Fuels"], ''Science'', vol. 109, pp. 103–109, February 4, 1949
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| * [http://www.technocracy.org/technocrat/Technocracy2.pdf Technocracy, Hubbert and peak oil] Article from ''The North American Technocrat''
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| * [http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/827 David Hughes on Canadian Oil and Gas] Transcribed interview of a Geologist with the [[Geological Survey of Canada]]. 30 December 2006.
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| * [http://www.oildecline.com/airways.pdf Aviation & Peak Oil] ''Airways'' Magazine article by Analyst / Economist (July 2006)
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| '''Reports, essays and lectures'''
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| * [http://publications.uu.se/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625 Doctoral thesis about Peak Oil]
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| * [http://www.tekno.dk/subpage.php3?article=1025&toppic=kategori11&language=uk&category=11/ Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future] The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet)
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| * [http://www.gasandoil.com/peakoil Peakoil conference 19-20 October 2004]
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| * [http://www.hubbertpeak.com/blanchard/ Graph showing oil production in lower 48 US states following Hubbert's predictions]
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| *[http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309101433/html/3.html Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production, and Possible Mitigation Options]: A Summary Report of the Workshop (2006), [[United States National Research Council|National Research Council]]
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| *[http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The%20End%20of%20Oil%20essay%201.pdf The End of Oil, essay 1.pdf], Very concise peak-oil study by Bob Lloyd, July 2005
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| *[http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444 Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate]
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| {{Peak oil}}
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| {{Shell oil}}
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| {{DEFAULTSORT:Hubbert Peak Theory}}
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| [[Category:Economic theories]]
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| [[Category:Futurology]]
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| [[Category:Peak oil]]
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| [[Category:Petroleum politics]]
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| [[Category:Environmental economics]]
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| [[Category:Energy and the environment]]
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