Upper and lower probabilities

In game theory, folk theorems are a class of theorems about possible Nash equilibrium payoff profiles in an infinitely repeated game Template:Harv.

For an infinitely repeated game, any Nash equilibrium payoff must weakly dominate the minmax payoff profile of the constituent stage game. This is because a player achieving less than his minmax payoff always has incentive to deviate by simply playing his minmax strategy at every history. The folk theorem is a partial converse of this: A payoff profile is said to be feasible if it lies in the convex hull of the set of possible payoff profiles of the stage game. The folk theorem states that any feasible payoff profile that strictly dominates the minmax profile can be realized as a Nash equilibrium payoff profile, with sufficiently large discount factor.

For example, in the Prisoner's Dilemma, both players cooperating is not a Nash equilibrium. The only Nash equilibrium is given by both players defecting, which is also a mutual minmax profile. The folk theorem says that, in the infinitely repeated version of the game, provided players are sufficiently patient, there is a Nash equilibrium such that both players cooperate on the equilibrium path.

In mathematics, the term folk theorem refers generally to any theorem that is believed and discussed, but has not been published. In order that the name of the theorem be more descriptive, Roger Myerson has recommended the phrase general feasibility theorem in the place of folk theorem for describing theorems which are of this class.

Sketch of proof

The proof of the non-perfect folk theorem employs what is called a grim trigger strategy Template:Harv. All players start by playing the prescribed action and continue to do so until someone deviates. If player i deviates, all players switch to the strategy which minmaxes player i forever after. For players discounting at a high rate, the potential one-stage gain from deviation will not be enough to cover the loss from punishment. Thus all players stay on the intended path.

In more detail, assume that the payoff of a player in an infinitely repeated game is given by the average discounted criterion with discount factor 0<δ<1: if a strategy profile results in the path of histories {h_t}, player i's payoff is

$(1-\delta )\sum _{t\geq 0}\delta ^{t}u_{i}(h_{t}),$

where u_i is player i's utility in the constituent stage game G. The discount factor indicates how patient the players are.

Let a be a pure strategy profile with payoff profile v which strictly dominates the minmax payoff profile. One can define a Nash equilibrium with v as resulting payoff profile as follows:

1. All players start by playing a and continue to play a if no deviation occurs.

2. If any one player, say player i, deviated, play the strategy profile m which minmaxes i forever after.

3. Ignore multilateral deviations.

If player i gets ε more than his minmax payoff each stage by following 1, then the potential loss from punishment is

${\frac {1}{1-\delta }}\epsilon .$

If δ is close to 1, this outweighs any finite one-stage gain, making the strategy a Nash equilibrium.

The above Nash equilibrium need not be subgame perfect. The threat of punishment may not be credible. Under the additional assumption that the set of feasible payoff profiles is full dimensional and the minmax profile lies in its interior. The argument can be strengthened to achieve subgame perfection as follows.

1. All players start by playing a and continue to play a if no deviation occurs.

2. If any one player, say player i, deviated, play the strategy profile m which minmaxes i for N periods. (Choose N and δ large enough so that no player has incentive to deviate from phase 1.)

3. If no players deviated from phase 2, all player j ≠ i gets rewarded ε above j's minmax forever after, while player i continues receiving his minmax. (Full-dimensionality and the interior assumption is needed here.)

4. If player j deviated from phase 2, all players restart phase 2 with j as target.

5. Ignore multilateral deviations.

Player j ≠ i now has no incentive to deviate from the punishment phase 2. This proves the subgame perfect folk theorem.

Applications

It is possible to apply this class of theorems to a diverse number of fields. An application in anthropology, for example, would be that in a community where all behavior is well known, and where members of the community know that they will continue to have to deal with each other, then any pattern of behavior (traditions, taboos, etc.) may be sustained by social norms so long as the individuals of the community are better off remaining in the community than they would be leaving the community (the minimax condition).

On the other hand, MIT economist Franklin Fisher has noted that the folk theorem is not a positive theory. In considering, for instance, oligopoly behavior, the folk theorem does not tell the economist what firms will do, but rather that cost and demand functions are not sufficient for a general theory of oligopoly, and the economists must include the context within which oligopolies operate in their theory.

In 2007, Borgs et al. proved that, despite the folk theorem, in the general case computing the Nash equilibria for repeated games is not easier than computing the Nash equilibria for one-shot finite games, a problem which lies in the PPAD complexity class.

Notes

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References

• Many property agents need to declare for the PIC grant in Singapore. However, not all of them know find out how to do the correct process for getting this PIC scheme from the IRAS. There are a number of steps that you need to do before your software can be approved.
  
  Naturally, you will have to pay a safety deposit and that is usually one month rent for annually of the settlement. That is the place your good religion deposit will likely be taken into account and will kind part or all of your security deposit. Anticipate to have a proportionate amount deducted out of your deposit if something is discovered to be damaged if you move out. It's best to you'll want to test the inventory drawn up by the owner, which can detail all objects in the property and their condition. If you happen to fail to notice any harm not already mentioned within the inventory before transferring in, you danger having to pay for it yourself.
  
  In case you are in search of an actual estate or Singapore property agent on-line, you simply should belief your intuition. It's because you do not know which agent is nice and which agent will not be. Carry out research on several brokers by looking out the internet. As soon as if you end up positive that a selected agent is dependable and reliable, you can choose to utilize his partnerise in finding you a home in Singapore. Most of the time, a property agent is taken into account to be good if he or she locations the contact data on his website. This may mean that the agent does not mind you calling them and asking them any questions relating to new properties in singapore in Singapore. After chatting with them you too can see them in their office after taking an appointment.
  
  Have handed an trade examination i.e Widespread Examination for House Brokers (CEHA) or Actual Property Agency (REA) examination, or equal; Exclusive brokers are extra keen to share listing information thus making certain the widest doable coverage inside the real estate community via Multiple Listings and Networking. Accepting a severe provide is simpler since your agent is totally conscious of all advertising activity related with your property. This reduces your having to check with a number of agents for some other offers. Price control is easily achieved. Paint work in good restore-discuss with your Property Marketing consultant if main works are still to be done. Softening in residential property prices proceed, led by 2.8 per cent decline within the index for Remainder of Central Region
  
  Once you place down the one per cent choice price to carry down a non-public property, it's important to accept its situation as it is whenever you move in – faulty air-con, choked rest room and all. Get round this by asking your agent to incorporate a ultimate inspection clause within the possibility-to-buy letter. HDB flat patrons routinely take pleasure in this security net. "There's a ultimate inspection of the property two days before the completion of all HDB transactions. If the air-con is defective, you can request the seller to repair it," says Kelvin.
  
  15.6.1 As the agent is an intermediary, generally, as soon as the principal and third party are introduced right into a contractual relationship, the agent drops out of the image, subject to any problems with remuneration or indemnification that he could have against the principal, and extra exceptionally, against the third occasion. Generally, agents are entitled to be indemnified for all liabilities reasonably incurred within the execution of the brokers´ authority.
  
  To achieve the very best outcomes, you must be always updated on market situations, including past transaction information and reliable projections. You could review and examine comparable homes that are currently available in the market, especially these which have been sold or not bought up to now six months. You'll be able to see a pattern of such report by clicking here It's essential to defend yourself in opposition to unscrupulous patrons. They are often very skilled in using highly unethical and manipulative techniques to try and lure you into a lure. That you must also protect your self, your loved ones, and personal belongings as you'll be serving many strangers in your home. Sign a listing itemizing of all of the objects provided by the proprietor, together with their situation. HSR Prime Recruiter 2010.
• Many property agents need to declare for the PIC grant in Singapore. However, not all of them know find out how to do the correct process for getting this PIC scheme from the IRAS. There are a number of steps that you need to do before your software can be approved.
  
  Naturally, you will have to pay a safety deposit and that is usually one month rent for annually of the settlement. That is the place your good religion deposit will likely be taken into account and will kind part or all of your security deposit. Anticipate to have a proportionate amount deducted out of your deposit if something is discovered to be damaged if you move out. It's best to you'll want to test the inventory drawn up by the owner, which can detail all objects in the property and their condition. If you happen to fail to notice any harm not already mentioned within the inventory before transferring in, you danger having to pay for it yourself.
  
  In case you are in search of an actual estate or Singapore property agent on-line, you simply should belief your intuition. It's because you do not know which agent is nice and which agent will not be. Carry out research on several brokers by looking out the internet. As soon as if you end up positive that a selected agent is dependable and reliable, you can choose to utilize his partnerise in finding you a home in Singapore. Most of the time, a property agent is taken into account to be good if he or she locations the contact data on his website. This may mean that the agent does not mind you calling them and asking them any questions relating to new properties in singapore in Singapore. After chatting with them you too can see them in their office after taking an appointment.
  
  Have handed an trade examination i.e Widespread Examination for House Brokers (CEHA) or Actual Property Agency (REA) examination, or equal; Exclusive brokers are extra keen to share listing information thus making certain the widest doable coverage inside the real estate community via Multiple Listings and Networking. Accepting a severe provide is simpler since your agent is totally conscious of all advertising activity related with your property. This reduces your having to check with a number of agents for some other offers. Price control is easily achieved. Paint work in good restore-discuss with your Property Marketing consultant if main works are still to be done. Softening in residential property prices proceed, led by 2.8 per cent decline within the index for Remainder of Central Region
  
  Once you place down the one per cent choice price to carry down a non-public property, it's important to accept its situation as it is whenever you move in – faulty air-con, choked rest room and all. Get round this by asking your agent to incorporate a ultimate inspection clause within the possibility-to-buy letter. HDB flat patrons routinely take pleasure in this security net. "There's a ultimate inspection of the property two days before the completion of all HDB transactions. If the air-con is defective, you can request the seller to repair it," says Kelvin.
  
  15.6.1 As the agent is an intermediary, generally, as soon as the principal and third party are introduced right into a contractual relationship, the agent drops out of the image, subject to any problems with remuneration or indemnification that he could have against the principal, and extra exceptionally, against the third occasion. Generally, agents are entitled to be indemnified for all liabilities reasonably incurred within the execution of the brokers´ authority.
  
  To achieve the very best outcomes, you must be always updated on market situations, including past transaction information and reliable projections. You could review and examine comparable homes that are currently available in the market, especially these which have been sold or not bought up to now six months. You'll be able to see a pattern of such report by clicking here It's essential to defend yourself in opposition to unscrupulous patrons. They are often very skilled in using highly unethical and manipulative techniques to try and lure you into a lure. That you must also protect your self, your loved ones, and personal belongings as you'll be serving many strangers in your home. Sign a listing itemizing of all of the objects provided by the proprietor, together with their situation. HSR Prime Recruiter 2010
• Mas-Colell, A., Whinston, M and Green, J. (1995) Micreoconomic Theory, Oxford University Press, New York (readable; suitable for advanced undergraduates.)
• Tirole, J. (1988) The Theory of Industrial Organization, MIT Press, Cambridge MA (An organized introduction to industrial organization)
• Ratliff, J. (1996). A Folk Theorem Sampler. Great introductory notes to the Folk Theorem.

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