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In [[probability theory]] and [[statistics]], the term '''Markov property''' refers to the memoryless property of a [[stochastic process]]. It is named after the [[Russia]]n [[mathematician]]  [[Andrey Markov]].<ref>Markov, A. A. (1954). ''Theory of Algorithms''. [Translated by Jacques J. Schorr-Kon and PST staff] Imprint Moscow, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1954 [Jerusalem, Israel Program for Scientific Translations, 1961; available from Office of Technical Services, [[United States Department of Commerce]]]  Added t.p. in Russian Translation of Works of the Mathematical Institute, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, v. 42. Original title: ''Teoriya algorifmov''. [QA248.M2943 Dartmouth College library. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Office of Technical Services, number OTS 60-51085.]</ref>
 
A stochastic process has the Markov property if the [[conditional probability distribution]] of future states of the process (conditional on both past and present values) depends only upon the present state, not on the sequence of events that preceded it. A process with this property is called a ''[[Markov process]]''. The term '''strong Markov property''' is similar to the Markov property, except that the meaning of "present" is defined in terms of a random variable known as a [[stopping time]]. Both the terms "Markov property" and "strong Markov property" have been used in connection with a particular "memoryless" property of the [[exponential distribution#Memorylessness|exponential distribution]].<ref>[[William Feller|Feller, W.]] (1971) ''Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol II'' (2nd edition),Wiley.  ISBN 0-471-25709-5 (pages 9 and 20)</ref>
 
The term '''Markov assumption''' is used to describe a model where the Markov property is assumed to hold, such as a [[hidden Markov model]].
 
A [[Markov random field]],<ref>Dodge, Y. (2003) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'' OUP. ISBN 0-19-850994-4</ref> extends this property to two or more dimensions or to random variables defined for an interconnected network of items. An example of a model for such a field is the [[Ising model]].
 
A discrete-time stochastic process satisfying the Markov property is known as a [[Markov chain]].
 
==Introduction==
 
A stochastic process has the Markov property if the [[conditional probability distribution]] of future states of the process (conditional on both past and present values) depends only upon the present state; that is, given the present, the future does not depend on the past. A process with this property is said to be '''Markovian''' or a '''[[Markov process]]'''. The most famous Markov process is a [[Markov chain]]. [[Brownian motion]] is another well-known Markov process.
 
==History==
 
{{Main|Markov chain#History}}
 
==Definition==
 
Let <math>(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})</math> be a [[probability space]] with a [[Filtration_(mathematics)#Measure_theory|filtration]] <math>(\mathcal{F}_s,\ s \in I)</math>, for some ([[totally ordered]]) index set <math>I</math>; and let <math>(S,\mathcal{S})</math> be a [[measurable space]]. A <math>(S,\mathcal{S})</math>-valued stochastic process <math>X=(X_t,\ t\in I)</math> adapted to the filtration is said to possess the ''Markov property'' if, for each <math>A \in \mathcal{S}</math>  and each <math>s,t\in I</math> with <math>s<t</math>,
 
:<math>\mathbb{P}(X_t \in A |\mathcal{F}_s) = \mathbb{P}(X_t \in A| X_s).</math><ref>Durrett, Rick. ''Probability: Theory and Examples''. Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.</ref>
 
In the case where <math>S</math> is a discrete set with the [[Sigma-algebra#Examples|discrete sigma algebra]] and <math>I = \mathbb{N}</math>, this can be reformulated as follows:
 
:<math>\mathbb{P}(X_n=x_n|X_{n-1}=x_{n-1} \dots X_0=x_0)=\mathbb{P}(X_n=x_n|X_{n-1}=x_{n-1})</math>.
 
==Alternative formulations==
 
Alternatively, the Markov property can be formulated as follows.
 
:<math>\mathbb{E}[f(X_t)|\mathcal{F}_s]=\mathbb{E}[f(X_t)|\sigma(X_s)]</math>
 
for all <math>t\geq s\geq 0</math> and <math>f:S\rightarrow \mathbb{R}</math> bounded and measurable.
 
==Strong Markov property==
 
Let <math>\mathcal{F}_{\tau^+}=\{A \in \mathcal{F}: \{\tau=t\} \cap A \in \mathcal{F}_{t+} ,\, \forall t \geq 0\}</math>.
 
Suppose that <math>X=(X_t:t\geq 0)</math> is a [[stochastic process]] on a [[probability space]] <math>(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})</math> with natural [[filtration (mathematics)|filtration]] <math>\{\mathcal{F}_t\}_{t\geq 0}</math>. Then <math>X</math> is said to have the strong Markov property if, for each [[stopping time]] <math>\tau</math>, conditioned on the event <math>\{\tau < \infty\}</math>, we have that for each <math>t\ge 0</math>, <math>X_{\tau + t}</math> is independent of <math>\mathcal{F}_{\tau^+}</math> given <math>X_\tau</math>.  
 
The strong Markov property implies the ordinary Markov property, since by taking the stopping time <math>\tau=t</math>, the ordinary Markov property can be deduced.
 
<!-- Hide for now  ... name '''Markov-type property''' seems doubtful
==Markov Type Property==
A stochastic process has a '''Markov-type property''' if the process's [[random variable]]s determine a set of probabilities can be factored in a way that yields the '''Markov property'''. Useful in applied research, members of such classes{{Clarify|October 2009|date=October 2009}} defined by their mathematics or area of application{{Clarify|October 2009|date=October 2009}} are referred to as '''[[Markov random field]]s'''., and occur in many situations. The [[Ising model]] is a prototypical example. -->
 
==Applications==
 
A very important{{Citation needed|date=March 2012}} application of the Markov property in a generalized form is in [[Markov chain Monte Carlo]] computations in the context of [[Bayesian statistics]].
 
==See also==
*[[Markov chain]]
*[[Markov blanket]]
*[[Markov decision process]]
*[[Causal Markov condition]]
*[[Markov model]]
*[[Chapman–Kolmogorov equation]]
 
== References ==
 
{{Reflist}}
 
[[Category:Markov models]]
[[Category:Markov processes]]

Revision as of 13:16, 26 November 2012

In probability theory and statistics, the term Markov property refers to the memoryless property of a stochastic process. It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov.[1]

A stochastic process has the Markov property if the conditional probability distribution of future states of the process (conditional on both past and present values) depends only upon the present state, not on the sequence of events that preceded it. A process with this property is called a Markov process. The term strong Markov property is similar to the Markov property, except that the meaning of "present" is defined in terms of a random variable known as a stopping time. Both the terms "Markov property" and "strong Markov property" have been used in connection with a particular "memoryless" property of the exponential distribution.[2]

The term Markov assumption is used to describe a model where the Markov property is assumed to hold, such as a hidden Markov model.

A Markov random field,[3] extends this property to two or more dimensions or to random variables defined for an interconnected network of items. An example of a model for such a field is the Ising model.

A discrete-time stochastic process satisfying the Markov property is known as a Markov chain.

Introduction

A stochastic process has the Markov property if the conditional probability distribution of future states of the process (conditional on both past and present values) depends only upon the present state; that is, given the present, the future does not depend on the past. A process with this property is said to be Markovian or a Markov process. The most famous Markov process is a Markov chain. Brownian motion is another well-known Markov process.

History

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Definition

Let (Ω,,) be a probability space with a filtration (s,sI), for some (totally ordered) index set I; and let (S,𝒮) be a measurable space. A (S,𝒮)-valued stochastic process X=(Xt,tI) adapted to the filtration is said to possess the Markov property if, for each A𝒮 and each s,tI with s<t,

(XtA|s)=(XtA|Xs).[4]

In the case where S is a discrete set with the discrete sigma algebra and I=, this can be reformulated as follows:

(Xn=xn|Xn1=xn1X0=x0)=(Xn=xn|Xn1=xn1).

Alternative formulations

Alternatively, the Markov property can be formulated as follows.

𝔼[f(Xt)|s]=𝔼[f(Xt)|σ(Xs)]

for all ts0 and f:S bounded and measurable.

Strong Markov property

Let τ+={A:{τ=t}At+,t0}.

Suppose that X=(Xt:t0) is a stochastic process on a probability space (Ω,,) with natural filtration {t}t0. Then X is said to have the strong Markov property if, for each stopping time τ, conditioned on the event {τ<}, we have that for each t0, Xτ+t is independent of τ+ given Xτ.

The strong Markov property implies the ordinary Markov property, since by taking the stopping time τ=t, the ordinary Markov property can be deduced.


Applications

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See also

References

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  1. Markov, A. A. (1954). Theory of Algorithms. [Translated by Jacques J. Schorr-Kon and PST staff] Imprint Moscow, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1954 [Jerusalem, Israel Program for Scientific Translations, 1961; available from Office of Technical Services, United States Department of Commerce] Added t.p. in Russian Translation of Works of the Mathematical Institute, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, v. 42. Original title: Teoriya algorifmov. [QA248.M2943 Dartmouth College library. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Office of Technical Services, number OTS 60-51085.]
  2. Feller, W. (1971) Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol II (2nd edition),Wiley. ISBN 0-471-25709-5 (pages 9 and 20)
  3. Dodge, Y. (2003) The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms OUP. ISBN 0-19-850994-4
  4. Durrett, Rick. Probability: Theory and Examples. Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.